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英伟达财报即将登场！高盛：若不释放这三大利好 股价恐仍将下行_我的网站

一 |     　　本周三（8月26日）美股盘后，“AI芯片霸主”英伟达将公布2027财年第二季度财报。

二 |     STOCKHOLM -- A ban on gasoline and diesel-fueled cars from a commercial district of Stockholm's downtown in 2025 will be the first for a European capital, a city official said Thursday.The ban will take effect in a 20-block area of shops, pedestrian walkways and a few homes in order to curb pollution, reduce noise and encourage use of electric vehicles said Lars Strömgren, the city council member for the Greens who's in charge of the Swedish capital's transportation. Many European capitals have restrictions on gasoline and diesel cars, but Strömgren says Stockholm’s complete ban would be a first. “We need to eliminate the harmful exhaust gases from (gasoline) and diesel cars. That’s why we are introducing the most ambitious low-emission zone to date,” Strömgren told The Associated Press. The idea is to create an "environmental zone” where only electric vehicles will be allowed. There will be some exceptions such as for emergency vehicles and transportation for the disabled.In its budget for 2024, the left-leaning, environmentally-focused city council on Tuesday unveiled the plan for the target area just north of the city’s famed Old Town. The municipal government controls a majority in the council, so the vote set for Nov. 23 is expected to be a formality. “We are pretty proud, I must say,” Strömgren said, adding that gradual expansion of the environmental zone would be decided in the first half of 2025.One of the city’s main cab companies, Taxi Stockholm, said its transition to emission-free vehicles is moving at a fast pace. The company’s acting chief executive Pernilla Samuelsson said it's emission-free vehicles now make up 30% of its fleet - almost seven times more than last year. “In other words, the transition is going fast and it is already being driven forward by the industry,” Samuelson said.Some aren't convinced things will go smoothly. Nike Örbrink from the opposition Christian Democrats told the Aftonbladet newspaper that some are concerned the plan would hurt businesses and the hotel industry.Other European capitals harbor similar ambitions. The Dutch capital, Amsterdam, is aiming for all transport in the city, including automobiles, to be emissions-free by 2030.The mayor of Paris wanted to ban all diesel cars before next year’s Olympics, and gasoline cars by 2030, but has run up against resistance.Currently, any diesel cars built before 2006 and gasoline cars built before 1997 are banned in Paris and 77 surrounding towns for 12 hours a day on weekdays. The ban will expand in 2025 for diesel cars built before 2011 and pre-2006 gasoline vehicles.___Jan Olsen reported from Copenhagen, Denmark. AP writers Mike Corder in Amsterdam, The Netherlands and Angela Charlton in Paris, France contributed.。
　　尽管和华尔街大多数机构一样，高盛预计英伟达第二季度业绩将表现强劲，业绩指引存在显著上修空间，但高盛分析师仍然暗示——这并不意味着公司股价能够在财报公布后上涨。

三 | 　　优秀业绩恐无法提振股价　　高盛分析师施耐德（James Schneider ）在最新研究报告中，对英伟达的业绩表现持乐观预期：“考虑到GPU供需格局紧张，（英伟达）本季度有望交出亮眼成绩单，业绩指引存在可观上调潜力。”　　但需要注意的是，8月英伟达股价大幅上涨，上述利好或许已经被市场提前定价。高盛分析师指出，过去两周英伟达股价涨幅超12%，市场对这只股票的预期门槛已经抬升。　　施耐德团队对英伟达第二、第三季度每股收益（EPS）的预测，分别比华尔街市场一致预期高出6%与12%。但尽管业绩预测高于市场共识，但高盛给出的公司目标价（285美元）却仍略低于市场平均目标价。

四 | 　　施耐德团队认为，英伟达当前股价较其评估的合理价值仍存在较大折价。分析师补充，该股估值仍具备重估上行空间，但前提是三大催化因素落地：　　1.超大规模云厂商盈利指标持续改善，支撑资本开支增长的可持续性；　　2.英伟达在客户融资平台上保持审慎可控的资本支出，以此缓解市场对于供应商循环融资的担忧；　　3.公司继续坚定推进大规模股票回购与分红计划。　　施耐德团队还特别表示，投资者们将在英伟达财报电话会议上，重点关注五大信息：　　1、客户融资平台的相关细节，及其对资本配置带来的影响；　　2、Vera Rubin平台在2026年下半年的落地推进进展；　　3、毛利率走势以及上游原材料成本情况；　　4、由智能体AI（Agentic AI）带动的CPU需求；　　5、行业竞争格局变化。　　GPU旺盛需求背后暗藏股价隐患　　尽管当前AI热潮仍然如火如荼，市场对英伟达GPU的需求也依旧旺盛，然而高盛指出，GPU旺盛需求背后仍然暗藏着股价的回调风险。　　首先，英伟达想要实现每一个季度都“业绩超预期+上调指引”的难度正在加大。　　此外，虽然各大云厂商仍在持续上调资本开支计划，但无法确定接下来他们是否还会继续加码，这会对接下来两个季度业绩形成压力。　　高盛指出，英伟达若想在财报公布之后实现股价大涨，仅仅做到常规的“业绩超预期、上调指引”已经不够，还需要释放具备重大分量的新消息。　　回顾过往，英伟达此前在2027财年一季报中大幅上调分红，但财报披露次日股价依旧收跌，这表明单纯的利好已经不会必然驱动股价走高。　　另一重矛盾点在于，GPU以及AI产业链其他零部件的需求火爆推高了产品价格，却也加重了部分英伟达核心客户的财务负担。

五 | 　　在本月初，英伟达联合阿波罗、贝莱德、黑石、高盛、KKR等多家华尔街机构，共同搭建AI算力基础设施融资平台，计划撬动超过5000亿美元第三方资本。　　高盛分析师指出，考虑到部分大客户难以承担高涨的算力采购需求，市场对于供应商循环融资的担忧不断升温，而英伟达目前的表态尚不足以打消这份顾虑。　　而高盛希望英伟达能够在财报电话会上，对这一融资平台做出详细说明。　　高盛分析师的言外之意非常明晰：即便高盛看好英伟达未来12个月的业绩和股价走势，也预判公司大概率会在本周交出超预期的财报与指引，但除非英伟达抛出重磅新利好，否则财报发布后，英伟达股价更有可能出现下跌，而非大幅冲高。（文章来源：财联社）。

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